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18 February, 201018 February, 2010 0 comments Uncategorized Uncategorized

An article on the Lloyd's web site (www.lloyds.com) points out that there are "around 1,500 active volcanoes in the world and, although deadly eruptions are rare, they can cause devastation to people and property over a wide area, leaving huge economic losses."

As an example Lloyd's selected Mount Mayon, which overlooks the Philippine island of Luzon. Because of "her perfect conical shape and her habit of regularly reminding people of her potentially explosive power," the mountain is "adored by volcanologists.

Mt. Mayon, which is 330kms (206 miles) south-east of the capital Manila, has erupted 48 times since records began, and could do so again at any time. The most violent eruption 1814 killed more than 1,200 people and devastated several towns. More recently, in December 2009, more than 30,000 people who live near Mount Mayon were moved to temporary shelters where they may have to stay for months.

Professor Bill McGuire, director & professor of geophysical hazards at the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, believes volcanoes pose a potentially catastrophic loss in some of the principal insurance markets around the world, threatening major cities such as Seattle on the US west coast and also Naples in Italy.

Naples has two active volcanoes - Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei," Prof McGuire explained. "It's a disaster waiting to happen. Either volcano could erupt anytime and Campi Flegrei is in the middle of an urban area."

According to Dr Rashmin Gunasekera, a catastrophe risk analyst at Lloyd's broker Willis Re, different volcanoes pose different threats. "In general the widest extent of damage in stratovolcanoes (like Mayon or Japan's Mt Fuji) would be from ash, which could impact on property, agriculture, aviation and hotels in volcanic ski resorts for example," Dr Gunasekera explained. "Ash could also result in respiratory illnesses," he added.

Prof McGuire pointed out that lava flow is usually the least important risk as flows are slow and have limited range. "Fast moving pyroclastic flow is the most destructive. Then there is the danger of mudflows produced by heavy rains on volcanic ash," he explained. "Plus volcanic ash can be carried several hundred miles, contaminating water supplies and electronics. Nearer the volcano the weight of ash can collapse roofs of buildings."

An even bigger threat is an eruption large enough to affect the entire global weather system. This happened following the colossal eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815. Over 90,000 people died as a direct result of the eruption - but the 200 million tons of sulphur dioxide that entered the earth's atmosphere limited the amount of sunlight getting through causing temperatures to plummet around the world for nearly a year.

There is, however, more of a chance today of gauging when a volcano may erupt. Scientists are getting better at assessing the precursory signals from volcanoes that help predict eruptions as well as the type of eruption. "Precursory signals for volcanoes include changes in geochemistry, geodesy (crustal motion) and frequency of volcanic tremor," Dr Rashmin Gunasekera stated. "For volcanoes that are heavily monitored these signals provide information about the behavior of the volcano and therefore information that might be useful for warning purposes," he added.

Forecasting is a different matter, Prof McGuire admits. "We can't do much more than say 'this is a volcano that erupts on average every 50 years, it hasn't erupted for 55 years, so we expect something to happen'," he explained.

Importantly for insurers it is still not possible to predict how big an eruption will be, how long it will go on for or when the climax will be, says Prof McGuire. Insurers usually define a natural catastrophe event as lasting no longer than 72 hours.

Following work carried out by Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, an 'hours clause' of 672 hours is now used for volcanic eruptions: "That's a month and it would cover most volcanic eruptions, reducing arguments about whether explosions are separate events," Prof McGuire stated.

Source: Lloyd's of London

TagsTags: volcanoes 
25 January, 201025 January, 2010 0 comments Uncategorized Uncategorized

iTunes 8 has added simple under-the-radar feature that allows you to quickly and easily tag any file in your iTunes library as an audiobook and move it into the Audiobooks section of iTunes and your iPod. The simple trick? Just right-click a track and select Get Info, head to the Options tab, and then select Audiobook from the Media Kind drop-down menu. The file will instantly leave your Music library and head straight for your Audiobook library. To mark multiple files at once, just select them all and go through the same process. The only remaining step is to tick the Remember Position checkbox if you haven't already, and your tracks should now have easily found their way to your Audiobooks section, and even better, they should work like an audiobook.

TagsTags: audiobooks 
23 January, 201023 January, 2010 0 comments Uncategorized Uncategorized

Google's web services may be considered cutting edge, but they run in warehouses filled with conventional computers. Now the search giant has revealed it is investigating the use of quantum computers to run its next generation of faster applications.

Writing on Google's research blog this week, Hartmut Neven, head of its image recognition team, reveals that the Californian firm has for three years been quietly developing a quantum computer that can identify particular objects in a database of stills or video.

Google has been doing this, Neven says, with D-Wave, a Canadian firm that has developed an on-chip array of quantum bits – or qubits – encoded in magnetically coupled superconducting loops.

The team set themselves the challenge of writing an algorithm for the chip that could learn to recognise cars in photos, and reported at the Neural Information Processing Systems conference in Vancouver, Canada, this week that they have succeeded.

Chasing cars

Using 20,000 photographs of street scenes, half of which contained cars and half of which didn't, they trained the algorithm to recognise what cars look like by hand-labelling all the cars with boxes drawn around them.

After that training, the algorithm was set loose on a second set of 20,000 photos, again with half containing cars. It sorted the images with cars from those without faster than an algorithm on a conventional computer could – faster than anything running in a Google data centre today, Neven says.

Classical computers use what is known as a von Neumann architecture, in which data is fetched from memory and processed according to rules defined in a program to generate results that are stored. It is pretty much a sequential process, though multiple versions of it can run in parallel to speed things up a little.

Quantum computers, however, promise much faster processing, by exploiting the principle of quantum superposition: that a particle such as an ion, electron or photon can be in two different states at the same time. While each basic "bit" of data in a conventional computer can be either a 1 or a 0 at any one time, a qubit can be both at once.

Quantum argument

D-Wave's Chimera chip launched to great media interest. But there has been some dispute over whether it is actually a quantum computer, which Neven acknowledges.

"It is not easy to demonstrate that a multi-qubit system such as the D-Wave chip exhibits the desired quantum behaviour, and physicists are still in the process of characterising it," he writes.

Google's quantum move is understandable, says Winfried Hensinger, reader in quantum, atomic and optical physics at the University of Sussex in Brighton, UK.

"Quantum computing has the potential to make search problems much easier to solve – so it is no surprise that Google finds it extremely important to get involved in this emerging area," he says.

"I expect more and more companies to pursue research in quantum computing due to its vast potential not only in search but also for a multiplicity of other problems," he adds.

However, he expects that while questions remain over the exact capabilities of D-Wave's hardware, future developments will centre on different hardware. "It is widely accepted that trapped ions are the most successful implementation of quantum technology."

If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.

Have your say

by Paul Marks from NewScientest.

TagsTags: quantum 
27 November, 200927 November, 2009 0 comments Uncategorized Uncategorized

TagsTags: muppets 
27 November, 200927 November, 2009 0 comments Uncategorized Uncategorized

TagsTags: muppets 
3 November, 20093 November, 2009 1 comments Uncategorized Uncategorized

LiveScience Staff

LiveScience.com livescience Staff

livescience.com
Mon Nov 2, 5:43 pm ET

A 35-mile rift in the desert of Ethiopia will likely become a new ocean eventually, researchers now confirm.

The crack, 20 feet wide in spots, opened in 2005 and some geologists believed then that it would spawn a new ocean. But that view was controversial, and the rift had not been well studied.

A new study involving an international team of scientists and reported in the journal Geophysical Research Letters finds the processes creating the rift are nearly identical to what goes on at the bottom of oceans, further indication a sea is in the region's future.

The same rift activity is slowly parting the Red Sea, too.

Using newly gathered seismic data from 2005, researchers reconstructed the event to show the rift tore open along its entire 35-mile length in just days. Dabbahu, a volcano at the northern end of the rift, erupted first, then magma pushed up through the middle of the rift area and began "unzipping" the rift in both directions, the researchers explained in a statement today.

"We know that seafloor ridges are created by a similar intrusion of magma into a rift, but we never knew that a huge length of the ridge could break open at once like this," said Cindy Ebinger, professor of earth and environmental sciences at the University of Rochester and co-author of the study.

The result shows that highly active volcanic boundaries along the edges of tectonic ocean plates may suddenly break apart in large sections, instead of in bits, as the leading theory held. And such sudden large-scale events on land pose a much more serious hazard to populations living near the rift than would several smaller events, Ebinger said.

"The whole point of this study is to learn whether what is happening in Ethiopia is like what is happening at the bottom of the ocean where it's almost impossible for us to go," says Ebinger. "We knew that if we could establish that, then Ethiopia would essentially be a unique and superb ocean-ridge laboratory for us. Because of the unprecedented cross-border collaboration behind this research, we now know that the answer is yes, it is analogous."

The African and Arabian plates meet in the remote Afar desert of Northern Ethiopia and have been spreading apart in a rifting process - at a speed of less than 1 inch per year - for the past 30 million years. This rifting formed the 186-mile Afar depression and the Red Sea. The thinking is that the Red Sea will eventually pour into the new sea in a million years or so. The new ocean would connect to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, an arm of the Arabian Sea between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Somalia in eastern Africa.

Atalay Ayele, professor at the Addis Ababa University in Ethiopia, led the investigation, gathering seismic data with help from neighboring Eritrea and Ghebrebrhan Ogubazghi, professor at the Eritrea Institute of Technology, and from Yemen with the help of Jamal Sholan of the National Yemen Seismological Observatory Center.

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